NFL Football Week 14 Weather: Cold, Rain Could Impact Key Games For Playoff Chase

On the first Sunday of December, the weather may throw some wild cards into several big Week 14 NFL matchups that may factor into the playoff race.

While there isn’t a “major storm” on the map this week, like the one that blanketed severel Big Ten college football games the Saturday after Thanksgiving, either cold or rain could be nuisances in at least five big games on Sunday.

Let’s start with the cold weather games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET)

So, how about a little déjà vu?

In January 2023, the Bengals traveled to Buffalo in the AFC divisional playoffs. Snow fell during the game, slickening the field, but the Bengals didn’t flinch in the wintry conditions and easily knocked the Bills out of the playoffs in a 27-10 win.

This Sunday, some snow showers are possible, and it probably won’t warm much above freezing. Fortunately, we’re not forecasting the lake-effect whiteouts we’ve seen in the past. And we don’t expect it to be windy.

Potential fantasy impact: The wind won’t be an extra headache for either quarterbacks Joe Burrow or Josh Allen, so don’t be concerned about them or the wide receivers and tight ends. Don’t worry about the kickers, either. That said, unless the game becomes a shootout, the Bills may keep it simple in the cold and run James Cook III repeatedly against the league’s last-rated Bengals defense.

(FULL FORECAST: Orchard Park, New York)

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (3:25 p.m. CT)

Arguably, the game of the week features two of the NFC’s top teams in a renewal of the NFL’s longest continuous rivalry. It’s the biggest Bears-Packers game in 12 years.

And true to the NFL’s coldest city with an outdoor stadium, it will certainly be cold for early December. Highs may struggle to reach 20 degrees Sunday, and wind chills may be in the single digits. We can’t rule out a flurry or brief snow shower, but we don’t expect much snow.

So, it won’t be nearly as cold as a December 2008 Bears-Packers game at Chicago’s Soldier Field (1 degree). Then again, the teams play again in Chicago on Saturday night, Dec. 20.

Potential fantasy impact: A cold game like this and a much improved offensive line argues for the Bears to lean on their rushing attack, second best in the NFL. However, they’ll face a Packers defense ranked fourth in the NFL, including game-wrecking edge rusher Micah Parsons. A cold game may also lend itself to more turnovers, and the Bears lead the league in both turnover differential (+17) and total takeaways (26).

(FULL FORECAST: Green Bay, Wisconsin)

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (7:20 p.m. CT)

What would December be without a cold game at Arrowhead?

This one has a playoff feel, as the Texans are hot, but still trailing two other teams in their division while the Chiefs are strangely 6-6 and fighting to stay in the wild card hunt.

Fortunately, we’re not expecting snow Sunday night. But it will certainly be cold, with temperatures probably in the mid-upper 20s around kickoff. Winds should taper off a bit as high pressure settles in, so that’s a positive.

(More: Top Ten NFL Weather Impacted Games)

This will be familiar territory for both teams. Kansas City beat the Texans twice in the playoffs in January 2020 and again in 2025, coming from 24-0 behind to win that 2020 game. Both games had similar weather to what we’re expecting Sunday night.

Potential fantasy impact: Yes, the Texans are used to either playing in warm weather or indoors at NRG Stadium. But great defense tends to travel, and the Texans have the NFL’s number one defense right now. Given that, temper your expectations for the Chiefs fifth-ranked NFL offense. You may want to do the same for the Texans offense. This could be a lower scoring game.

(FULL FORECAST: Kansas City, Missouri)

Now that we got the coldest games out of the way, let’s talk about two potential wet games.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. ET)

This is an AFC South showdown in which the winner can keep control of the division while the loser drops into the wild card scrum.

And for the Colts, losers of 3 of their last 4, accustomed to playing indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, this rainy forecast is the last thing they need.

Showers are likely, and a thunderstorm is also possible. This game may have a similar feel as last Sunday’s Rams-Panthers game in Charlotte.

Potential fantasy impact: On the one hand, the rain and the Colts recent offensive struggles may force them to lean on star RB Jonathan Taylor, but it’s hard to know if a wet field will hurt or help him. And he’s facing the league’s stingiest rush defense in Jacksonville. You’re obviously starting Taylor, but this one might be trickier than it appears.

(FULL FORECAST: Jacksonville, Florida)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET)

For the second week in a row, the Saints will play in Florida, this time against the division leading Bucs.

It may not be the level of the 1979 monsoon at the “Big Sombrero”, but the chance of thunderstorms during the game is an x factor. It will also be breezy, warm and humid for this divisional battle.

Potential fantasy impact: You may be tempted to start all your Bucs at home vs. the 2-10 Saints. But while Bucs QB Baker Mayfield started the season as an MVP candidate, he hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards and 1 TD pass in the past 3 games. And if playing in rain and on a wet field, that passing offense may not be what you hope for.

(FULL FORECAST: Tampa, Florida)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.

Tiffany Savona is a meteorologist for weather.com with more than 15 years of experience in forecasting the weather across the country.