“Survive and advance” is a phrase we generally bust out around NCAA tournament time. But the Chicago Bears have made it a mantra for their 2025 season … and somehow, they’ve ridden “survive and advance” all the way to first place in the NFC North and the third seed in the current NFC playoff bracket.
Yes, really. We can’t believe it either.
The Bears have seven wins this season. Five of those are one-possession games, and in every single one, Chicago had to mount a second-half comeback. In all five, the Bears took the lead inside the final two minutes: 1:27 against the Raiders, 0 seconds against the Commanders, 17 seconds against the Bengals, 1:47 left against the Giants and no time on the clock against the Vikings on Sunday.
Chicago doctors are almost surely recommending against watching the Bears for their patients with delicate constitutions. That said, this is one hell of a ride, for however long it continues.
And now, the nitpicking … or, put another way, the cold, hard statistical reality. To start, not one of the Bears’ wins this year has come against a team with a current winning record. They’ve gotten fat and happy on the bottom-feeders of the NFC (Saints, Giants, Commanders) and AFC (Raiders and Bengals). Matter of fact, not a single team they’ve played all season is in the playoff bracket right now.
And despite a 7-3 record that leads the NFC North, the Bears have actually been outscored this season, 258-264.
Kind of takes a bit of gleam off the 2025 record, yes … but then again, you play the games on your schedule, and it’s up to you to win them. Last season, a year in which the Bears at one point posted 10 straight losses, Chicago was a woeful 3-7 in one-possession games. Flipping those near-losses into nailbiter wins is the first step in building a postseason-ready franchise.
Dig a little deeper — not much, but a little — and you can see how the Bears are white-knuckling their way through the season. Caleb Williams isn’t exactly dominating the league; he ranks outside the top 10 in passing yardage, touchdowns, completion percentage and passer rating. Only one receiver ranks among the top 50 in yardage — Rome Odunze at No. 23. D’Andre Swift comes in at No. 16 in rushing yardage. The Bears’ defense is surrendering 26.4 points and 364.6 yards per game; only a handful of teams are worse in either category.
Put more succinctly: This doesn’t seem sustainable, not when the teeth of the schedule awaits.
The real problem with a light early schedule like Chicago has enjoyed is that the bill comes due in November and December. Over the rest of the season, Chicago draws Philadelphia and San Francisco on the road, Green Bay twice, and the Lions at home, with games against Pittsburgh and Cleveland sprinkled in. Of all the teams remaining on the Bears’ slate, only Cleveland has a losing record right now.
The challenge for Chicago is that there’s little margin for error. San Francisco at 7-4 is the seventh seed right now in the NFC, with Detroit (and, somehow, Carolina) just outside the bubble with six wins apiece. Maybe a 3-4 record over that stretch — 10 wins, in other words — will be enough to get Chicago into the playoffs, and maybe not.
The upcoming schedule, along with the Bears’ relative statistical mediocrity, is why the NFL’s Next Gen Stats project the Bears at just a 58 percent chance to make the playoffs — by far the lowest number of any team currently in the NFC playoff bracket. Head coach Ben Johnson is tamping down any of this playoff talk before it can take root.
“We’re midseason right now,” Johnson said after Sunday’s win. “So, we’re not even looking at that. We’ve earned seven wins so far and we’re really looking for the opportunity to go 1-0 next week.”
“Next week” — a date with Pittsburgh — is an intriguing one primarily because of the Steelers’ would-be quarterback, noted Bear-hunter Aaron Rodgers. Over the course of his career, Rodgers is 25-5 against Chicago, though he’s currently dealing with a fractured left wrist that could keep him out of Sunday’s game.
Chicago’s postseason hopes might be a version of that old story about the hunters getting pursued by the, uh, bear … they don’t need to outrun the bear, they just need to outrun the other guy. Chicago doesn’t need to outrun the Eagles or Rams, they just need to keep one or two other teams behind them.
So for now, Bears fans can enjoy the season the way a Cinderella team enjoys careening through the NCAA tournament bracket, causing wreckage and heart palpitations with every game. As with a Cinderella team, you have a good idea of how this is all going to end, but the longer Chicago can hold off the inevitable, the better for everyone involved.
