Sunday Night Football heads to Buffalo for Week 5, and we’ve cooked up a three-leg parlay to make things interesting. Most SGPs are longshots designed to drain your bankroll. Those flashy +1,000,000 tickets look fun, but they almost never cash. The books want you to bet on those! At FTN, we take a different approach to SGPs.
Using our Same Game Parlay Tool, powered by 10,000 simulations for every matchup, we identify spots where the odds are actually mispriced. That means you’re not just throwing darts, but you’re building parlays with real edges, even when the payouts are big.
Reminder: FTN’s simulation betting model is free to use in Week 5. Check out game predictions, player projections, and matchup stats for all 28 teams who are suiting up this weekend. It’s only free for one week, so make sure you check it out while you can! You can grab an NFL GOAT subscription if you’d like to have access to the model, plus all of our betting tools and analysis, for the entire season!
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Same Game Parlay
We have an exciting game between the Bills and the Patriots. While we know the Bills have established themselves as the clear favorites in the AFC East, the Patriots are trying to make things interesting. They’re coming off a dominant performance in Week 4 and are out to prove that they are really that good and the Panthers aren’t just that bad. These are two of the better offenses in the league: the Bills rank first in offensive DVOA, and the Patriots are just outside the top 10. If the Patriots hope to keep this game close, it’ll take a strong performance from the offense to keep up with Josh Allen and the Bills. With that in mind, here’s a parlay that assumes the Patriots find offensive success, which forces the Bills to keep their foot on the gas pedal.
This one pays at +450 on BetMGM.
Leg 1: Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards
Josh Allen is once again playing at an MVP level, and is currently fifth in passing DVOA this season. The “problem” — not that Bills fans care about this “problem” — is his volume is down because the team is often winning comfortably. However, this week he faces Drake Maye and the Patriots, who could be able to keep up with the Bills’ pace. Allen’s line of 228.5 assumes he won’t have to throw a lot because the Bills are up big, but this could be a situation where Allen is forced to throw more.
Leg 2: Keon Coleman Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Correlation is the name of the game with SGPs. If Allen has a ton of passing yards, there’s a good chance his WR1 has a good game as well. We also project Coleman for just under 60 yards, so even without the correlation we like this bet on its own.
Leg 3: TreVeyon Henderson Over 26.5 Rushing Yards
The Patriots are still rotation their running backs, but Henderson could break out in this game. The Bills have been one of the worst rushing defenses in football this year. They’re 30th in DVOA against the run and eighth worst in success rate against. Henderson got 7 carries last week, and if he gets a similar number, he should be able to go over in this matchup.
