Without question the A’s are aiming to contend in 2026, at least for a wild card spot and ideally for the AL West where this year it appears 89-90 wins will get you the crown. All the conventional wisdom agrees that what the A’s need, more than anything else, is another front line starter pitcher.
There are several ways to add a #1-#2 SP into the fold. One, which the A’s hope to do by mid-season, is to promote a prospect so good he might hit the ground running a la Tim Hudson and Barry Zito. Gage Jump is a candidate for 2026, Jamie Arnold more likely a 2027 hopeful.
Another way is through trade where the A’s, historically, have had success spinning established talent for good young talent such as Danny Haren and Jarrod Parker or, with more of a delay, Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill.
The last way is through free agency, which the A’s also did very successfully at one time inking Bartolo Colon, Scott Kazmir, and Rich Hill to affordable deals that paid off in spades.
Fast forward to 2025, though, and the A’s had to shell out $67M to lure Luis Severino on a 3 year deal that has a player opt-out after year 2. And for that the A’s have gotten all of a 7-11, 4.72 ERA SP who has been at times effective and at many times erratic.
Now comes the punchline.
Luis Severino
With players valued at approximately $9M per 1 WAR of value these days, Severino’s 2.4 WAR put him on pace to be “valued” at around $22.3M this season. Severino’s contract is for…$22.3M per year. Meaning that Severino has been worth right around what his contract is paying him.
How is this possible for a guy whose ERA is near 5.00? It helps that Severino has made 28 starts and thrown 156.1 IP. Eating innings isn’t sexy but it’s valuable. So according to the WAR valuation system if you want someone to pitch as well — and as not well — as Severino you should be prepared to shell out over $22M.
Jeffrey Springs
Also up and down this season, Jeffrey Springs has produced a passable-but-not-spectacular 4.17 ERA in his 31 appearances (all starts though 2 are officially relief appearances). Springs has pitched very well at times but has also only averaged 5.1 IP per start.
Nonetheless, unlike Severino whose WAR value has matched his salary, Springs has in fact greatly exceeded his “value” in performance. At a middling 1.6 WAR Springs has provided approximately $14.4M in value while commanding a salary of “just” $10.5M.
Paying Ace prices for Mid-Back End Starters
We know that on a contending team, ideally Severino should be more like your #3 SP and Springs your #4. But according to the valuation system, you should expect to pay around $22M and $14.4M for the privilege of starting them every 5th day.
Which means that in order to get an actual #2 SP…If you mean Bryan Woo, his 3.7 WAR translate to $33.3M. Carlos Rodon’s 2.9 WAR? 26.1M. Jesus Luzardo? 4.8WAR = $43.2M. Or teammate Ranger Suarez: 4.2 WAR = 37.8.
If $22.3M only gets you an erratic mid-rotation SP and it costs upwards of $30M to give “fair market value” to a true FOTR arm…let’s just say we’re not in the Kazmir/Hill era anymore.
O RLY?
Or maybe we are, as Kazmir was pitching for the Sugar Land Skeeters and Hill had made all of 4 September starts for the Red Sox when the A’s saw in them what hadn’t yet become apparent to the whole baseball world: they were ready to pitch like legitimate #2 SPs.
So for the A’s to add that coveted pitcher for 2026 they might need to identify, better than their peers, that pitcher whose price tag isn’t in the 30s or high 20s but who is poised to offer that kind of value on the mound. Any ideas who that might be?
Any Closet #2’s Out There?
Could it be Zac Gallen, who has accrued all of 1 WAR this season but whose sub 3.00 ERA since August 1st suggests he might be back to the form that produced 9.4 WAR in 2022-23?
Or teammate Aaron Nola, who produced 2.8 WAR or better (including as high as 5.5 and 6.3) in 8 straight seasons before this one — which has been a disaster (4-9, 6.44 ERA)?
Or…? {Your ideas here}
