In about a month the Portland Trail Blazers will embark on their 2024-25 regular-season campaign. Hopes are high in Portland because of the appearance of major changes in the roster. On paper, that seems valid. The Blazers ditched two of their main players this summer: long-time scorer Anfernee Simons and second-chance center DeAndre Ayton. They also brought on major veterans in Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard with rookie center Yang Hansen rounding out the field of newcomers.
Whether those moves actually change Portland’s fortunes remains to be seen. Acknowledging that, we’re beginning our look at the new season by examining some of the questions the Blazers will need to answer before we can trust in a potential Renaissance. Yesterday we looked at the halfcourt offense through the lens of three-point shooting. Today we’ll examine the flip side of the coin.
Portland’s success in the halfcourt isn’t trivial, but it’s only half the story. This roster hasn’t been assembled down the classic lines of superstar scoring or Big 3 dominance. The Blazers are built to do two things above all: defend and run. Getting stifled by opposing defenses in the slowdown game doesn’t matter as much if you’ve already scored before they got to that end of the floor.
In this way the Blazers loosely emulate the World Champion Oklahoma City Thunder, with the obvious caveat that they have no analog to NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC dominated opponents by forcing turnovers and getting down the floor. Portland’s turnover game may not be as strong–more on that in later posts–but the running part they should have down.
Exhibit A is Deni Avdija, the Swiss Army Knife forward who absolutely shines when he can turn on the afterburners and lead the charge on the break. Avdija looks good enough in the halfcourt with the ball in his hands. He’s an able scorer and has good passing instincts, though he’s prone to turnovers when stalled. He leaves analysts and observers in awe when he has a full head of steam and a spread floor ahead of him. That’s All-Star Deni, the guy who would have been at home with Clyde Drexler’s Blazers and Bill Walton’s. We see it clearest when the team is running.
After that come young, potential-filled super-guards Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.Like Avdija, they can score in the halfcourt. But the glasses come off in the phone booth when either gets daylight ahead of them. Athleticism is their calling card. Fast breaking is a big part of their destiny.
Toumani Camara is not the same kind of explosive offensive force on the run that Advija, Henderson, and Sharpe are, but he shines in open-floor defense: hounding opponents, creating chaos, forcing turnovers. He’s less special when he’s planted in place than on a shifting floor.
Developing forwards Kris Murray and Rayan Rupert stand behind these four stalwarts. Those young prospects are better when open, unconcerned, and reacting instinctively than covered and having to craft their offense against opposition.
That’s four main and two ancillary players on Portland’s 12-man roster, all of whom would prosper in a transition offense, most of whom would live more comfortably in an aggressive, loose, pressuring defensive system as well. If running isn’t a key to Portland’s present, it sure looms large in their future.
Here’s the issue. Last year the Blazers ranked 15th in the NBA in pace. The good news: they’ve been slower. The bad news: that’s still not remarkable. They finished 13th in the league in fast break points scored with 15.8. That’s a huge improvement on their recent legacy, occupying permanent residency at the bottom five of the league. But they also gave up 17.5 fast break points per game. That ranked 28th in the league for fast break defense, an abysmal showing. It also put them in a 1.7 point deficit in transition scoring.
Put it all together and the effect is similar to finally getting your car out of the garage and onto the racetrack, but finding out you’re still a second slower than everybody else each lap. It’s cool you’re running the race, but you’re not going to win it or even get close.
If the Blazers want to succeed, they have to find a way to maintain–if not increase–their offensive production in transition while locking in on the defensive end, not letting opponents get back on them and scuttle the advantage those easy points are supposed to bring. An excellent halfcourt team could shrug at giving up the fast break margin to an opponent. Portland doesn’t have that kind of cushion. If they don’t do the literal thing they’re built for better than the other guys they’re not going to be able to save themselves with their second and third options.
If you want to know how the season is going for the Blazers this year, one of the first places to look is that aggregate fast break margin. That’s going to tell you if the effort, athleticism, and focus being developed throughout the franchise is actually paying off or whether it’s just a better looking way to lose, jockeying for lottery position instead of bracket glory.
A note in closing: head back to where we started this conversation. What are the main hopes for improvement or change in Portland this year outside of the natural development of the younger players on their roster? Acquiring Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard, and Yang Hansen has been the main thrust. We can add hopes for resurgence for longer-term member Jerami Grant. How many of those players help and/or thrive in the transition game? The answer isn’t very promising. This is part of the reason that analysts and pundits have termed Portland’s moves this offseason as interesting but not conclusive. Stay tuned.
