5 Keys to Victory: Can Rams burn Baker and the Bucs?

The Los Angeles Rams will be going for their sixth consecutive win on Sunday Night Football when they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It will be Baker Mayfield’s first game at SoFi Stadium against the Rams since the 2022 season. The Rams are playing some of their best football right now while the Buccaneers are trending downward. Rams head coach Sean McVay has dominated the recent matchups against Todd Bowles. With the current offense playing the way that it is, that should continue. Here are this week’s keys to victory.

1. Pressure Baker Mayfield

The Rams are playing a better version of Sam Darnold when they take on the Buccaneers on Sunday. Early in the season, Mayfield was firmly in the MVP conversation. However, with offensive line injuries, the lack of a consistent run game, and injuries to the wide receivers, Mayfield has struggled. Unlike Darnold, Mayfield has the ability to create out of structure, but he is still susceptible to missing throws. That isn’t going to result in interceptions like Darnold, but Mayfield has been sacked 20 times this season. He also ranks third in fumbles with seven.

If the Rams can lock down on the backend and get Mayfield to hold the ball, Jared Verse and Byron Young may be able to get to Mayfield and force a fumble or get a sack. Again, Mayfield has the ability to make plays when scrambling, but if the Rams pass rush can get him to play a bit chaotically, chaotic things will happen.

2. Get Back to 13 Personnel

For the first time since the Rams introduced 13 personnel against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the offense struggled with it last week. A lot of that was because the Seahawks were able to match it out of nickel due to the personnel that they have on that side of the ball. However, that is not the case for the Buccaneers. Even with Tyler Higbee going on injured reserve, the Rams should be able to get into heavier personnel with multiple tight ends. Davis Allen, Terrance Ferguson, and Colby Parkinson have all played well.

This is also where the Rams should be able to exploit the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are bottom-10 in EPA per dropback out of their base defense. Against 12 personnel, they’ve allowed 0.40 EPA per dropback which ranks 31st. They are allowing 6.2 yards per play out of their base defense which is the most in the NFL and 9.2 net yards per pass which is 31st. The Buccaneers secondary when in their base defense is allowing a 19.4 explosive pass rate.

To put it simply, the Rams should be able to exploit the second level defenders. SirVocea Dennis ranks 90th out of 93 linebackers in coverage, while Lavonte David is also outside the top 50 via PFF coverage grades. The Rams should be able to take advantage of the Buccaneers’ linebackers in the passing game, especially in base personnel and Todd Bowles’ tendency has been to match heavy personnel with base.

3. Limit Explosive Pass Plays

The Buccaneers offense has been very boom or bust this season. Early on in the year, this was a team that was consistently able to generate explosive plays and it was a major reason for their success. That hasn’t been the case as of late as they rank 19th in explosive pass rate. Since Week 6, their passing offense ranks 24th in EPA per dropback. This is a Buccaneers offense that ranks ninth in punts per drive and seventh in field goals per drive.

Essentially, the Buccaneers either get stopped early or they stall when in scoring range. They have the 25th ranked red zone offense. The Rams have done very well this season when it comes to limiting explosive plays, but that is what this Buccaneers offense lives on, because they are limited when asked to move the ball. If the Rams defense can stress Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense, they can create opportunities.

4. Stick with the Run Game

While the Buccaneers generally have a good run defense as they allow just a 33.3 percent rushing success rate, because of Vita Vea in the middle of the defensive line. Still there are ways to exploit them. The Buccaneers are allowing 5.72 yards per carry to man/duo runs which is the third most in the NFL. The Rams have the second-most man-duo rushing attempts.

Vea is a very good run defender in the middle of the defensive line, but the Buccaneers are slow at the second level. If the Rams can break through to the second level, they should be able to break off some chunk plays. This could end up being a Blake Corum game. Against the Detroit Lions, the Buccaneers allowed 17 carries for 136 yards to Jahmyr Gibbs who brings some speed. TreVeyon Henderson had 14 carries for 147 yards and also brings a speed element. Corum isn’t the fastest running back, but when the Rams have gotten him in space, he has shown some explosiveness. This will be a good game to use Kyren Williams inside with duo and then mix in zone runs with Corum.

5. Avoid a hangover

When the Rams lost to the San Francisco 49ers, it came in primetime after a tight win against the Indianapolis Colts. The Rams shouldn’t be overlooking the Buccaneers, but last week was a physical, emotional game that they will need to be able to move on from. Yes, they beat the Seahawks in a close game and are now first place in the NFC West. Now, they need to take care of business against a team in which they should hold nearly every advantage.

The Rams are arguably catching the Buccaneers at a good time. This was one of the hottest teams in the NFL to start the season and they have since lost four of their last seven games. That includes three of their last four. When the Buccaneers have played an injured or inferior opponent, they’ve won. However, they’ve lost to every opponent with a better record. The Rams need to take advantage and continue their current momentum.