It might intrigue fans of the Buffalo Bills to know that the Miami Dolphins lead the league this year in converting third downs. They’ve converted just over 54% of their third-down tries which is very impressive. Sadly, with only three games into the season that’s not so much reflective of the Dolphins being great as it is that the stat is propped up by this game.

Against Miami, Buffalo allowed conversions on 10 of 15 attempts or 67%. As Bills Mafia know, they weren’t all short conversions either. Let’s dissect a few plays in full, with notes on the rest of third-down tries at the end.

Tyreek Hill converts 3rd & 12

The Bills were hoping for the pass rush to land, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a good night avoiding pressure. As he leaked out to the left side, a completely unaccounted for Tyreek Hill put himself in position to pick up the first down. Buffalo had the numbers to cover this on the back end, but left a zone wide open past the sticks.

Tyreek Hill converts 3rd & 10

On this play, I think credit is due to Tyreek Hill. The Bills had the line to gain well covered and players in position to make the stop. An unexpected dart back toward the Dolphins’ end line caused a bit of a whiff by Buffalo’s defenders and the speedy Hill took advantage.

Tyreek Hill converts 3rd & 3

I was going to just do clips of the 3rd & Long conversions, but this one is so dang weird I had to capture it. Was Hill crouching so as not to be noticed… and does it work? No one seemed to notice him until the ball was in the air and by then it was too late to prevent the first down. This looks like a complete failure by the Bills to recognize where the most potent weapon on the field was located.

Jaylen Waddle converts 3rd & 8

I’ve defended the use of the cushion before, and I’ll even say it’s not the reason cornerback Tre’Davious White was burned for a first down by Jaylen White. White seemed to step inside, even though he had help in that direction. He tried to adjust back to Waddle heading to the sideline, but well and truly too late. If you’re going to use the cushion, you need to be on top of how the play develops and that didn’t happen on this rep.

Jaylen Waddle converts 3rd & 4

This is similar to above for most of these conversions. The Bills simply weren’t accounting for where the best players on the field were on Thursday.

The Final Straw

Fingers crossed this is a function of the short week and so many injuries to Bills defenders. On third down, the defense routinely seemed to forget where Miami’s stars were and that led to the exact issue you’d expect from that sentence.

That’s not intended to dismiss the talent of Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. You’d expect players of their ability to make a play or two in the course of a game. It’s the frequency that they were left alone to do so that’s concerning.

Hill and Waddle were the only reason the Dolphins had a chance against Buffalo in Week 3. I’ve defended the Bills’ defense more than most, but so far this season they’ve made it pretty difficult.

Notes

Q1, 13:28 – 3rd &4, Christian Benford can’t shadow Tyreek Hill closely enough to prevent a quick toss. Did force him to sideline at least to limit to gain of five.
Q1, 10:41 – 3rd & 1, went 4-3 but used a shoot the gap play call rather than making a wall. Nearly worked but Strong not quite quick enough.
Q1, 8:34 – 3rd & 2 at the goal line, they went nickel, couldn’t out-muscle.
Q1, 3:12 – 3rd & 5, Tua Tagovailoa fumbles snap. Tries to scramble but doesn’t pick up first.
Q2, 10:59 – 3rd & 9, good pressure from Buffalo forces Tagovailoa to scramble and misses throw.
Q2, 4:39 – 3rd &1, Ollie Gordon II hit behind the line by Deone Walker but slips through arm tackle to gain four.
Q2, 2:40 – 3rd & 12. see above.
Q2, 1:48 – 3rd & 10, see above.
Q2; 0:47 – 3rd & 7, dime defense and rush four. Good pressure and Tagovailoa dances to avoid being sacked multiple times then scrambles for the first.
Q2; 0:17 – 3rd & 3, the FIFTH third down on this drive. See above.
Q3; 9:11 – 3rd & 11, five man rush fails to put pressure on Tagovailoa. Dolphins likely have the first down underneath with De’Von Achane uncovered. Tagovailoa goes for kill shot to Hill which is not caught.
Q3; 5:47 – 3rd & 5, get pressure with four and good coverage. Tagovailoa throws the ball away.
Q4; 15:00 – 3rd & 14, Dolphins try gadget play with lateral but well covered. Only gains seven. Pass rush of four did decent job collapsing pocket quickly but pass out fast.
Q4; 6:36 – 3rd & 8, see above.
Q4; 4:40 – 3rd & 4, see above.